By Dave Beattie
The dismay among Democrats over the election results shouldn’t come as a shock.
This wasn’t a voter enthusiasm gap — it was a communication failure. Momentum for Donald Trump was evident in polling and online behavior in the weeks before the election, reflecting struggles Vice President Kamala Harris faced with men across racial lines, Hispanic voters, and economically insecure white women.
This failure goes well beyond the 107 days of the Harris campaign.
Democrats’ messaging issues are systemic. Increasingly, we fail to meet people where they are, ignoring the foundational concerns that drive much of human behavior: food, shelter, economic stability, and safety.
As a former Democratic pollster, I share the blame. Microtargeting and behavior analytics can make campaigns tone deaf to voters’ basic needs. Republicans spoke directly to inflation, job security, and crime, while Democrats focused on policies many prioritize only after those needs are met—like reproductive freedom, climate change, and Trump’s character.
Trump’s messaging was direct and plain: “I’ll get inflation under control,” “I’ll bring back jobs,” “I’ll protect your neighborhoods.” He addressed voters’ fears of economic instability and insecurity. Ads featuring real struggles with inflation stirred emotional trust, overcoming his inflammatory rhetoric and incoherence for many voters. They saw a candidate who articulated what was in it for them.
In contrast, Harris emphasized diversity, inclusion, and reproductive rights. While 65% of voters supported legal abortion in exit polling, economic worries outweighed these concerns among some Americans facing financial insecurity. Democratic ads attacking Trump’s agenda resonated with the base but failed to connect with undecided voters focused on job security, inflation, and affordability.
This disconnect highlights Democrats’ broader messaging problems.
To many, we’ve become the “elitist” party. We focus on policies that resonate with our base but alienate others, building coalitions with narrow appeals instead of unifying themes. We’ve forgotten James Carville’s mantra: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Dismissing non-college, working-class voters as “uninformed” is both condescending and counterproductive. Democrats provided policy prescriptions while Trump felt their pain. Democrats focused on Trump’s character rather than his competence. Wide swaths of the electorate felt that Democrats were obsessed about HIM, and ignoring THEM.
This blind spot extends to gender and racial dynamics. To many, we come across as the “sexist” and “racist” party, targeting communities in ways that reinforce demographic divides rather than building bridges. We celebrated Harris’s support among women while ignoring or belittling men’s widening support for Trump, particularly among working-class and younger voters. We expressly excluded followers of broadly popular podcasts, such as the Joe Rogan Experience, where younger, persuadable men gravitate. And then we lament that these voters feel alienated.
Meanwhile, Republicans broadened their targets and actively courted Hispanic voters on economic stability and African American men on safety and jobs. Democrats’ demographic coalition focus often implied people’s value was tied to their identity, not their needs.
The assumption that “demographics is destiny” has been disastrous. Counting groups doesn’t equal support. Priorities change and no demographic group is a static monolith. Trump’s campaign exemplified branding power, framing him as a “strong leader” despite controversies. Voters weren’t necessarily enthusiastic about Trump, but they trusted him better to address their basic needs.
If Democrats want to win, we must reflect on these blind spots. Dismissing voters’ choices as “wrong” isn’t viable. As Ted Lasso says: “Be curious, not judgmental.” We must listen, meet people where they are, and focus on unifying, immediate concerns.
Only then can we rebuild a coalition capable of winning elections and leading the nation.
David Beattie is a former Democratic pollster, and a former Pollster of the Year for the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC).
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