Roundup: Demographics, Voter Trends, & Political Alignment

The 2024 election has left political analysts scratching their heads. Donald Trump pulled off a clean sweep of key battleground states, defying years of assumptions about voter turnout and party loyalty. And with the GOP claiming the House, Senate, and presidency, this election has proven one thing: nothing in politics is as simple as it seems.

For years, the rule of thumb was clear—high voter turnout helped Democrats, while low turnout favored Republicans. But this election shattered that theory. Turnout was historically high, yet Trump dominated, especially in rural areas. He secured 64% of the rural vote, surpassing his 2016 record. It wasn’t just a red wave; it was a seismic shift in how elections play out.

Trump’s campaign took a gamble on voters who aren’t typical ballot-casters. These so-called low-propensity voters—primarily white, working-class, and without college degrees—turned out in droves. It was a risky strategy that paid off. And it wasn’t just about turnout; many of these voters cast a single vote for Trump and ignored down-ballot races. That kind of loyalty has left Republicans asking themselves one question: Is this a Trump phenomenon, or can the party keep this momentum?

Democrats, meanwhile, are licking their wounds. Young voters, long considered a reliable part of the Democratic coalition, drifted right. In Michigan, Trump narrowly carried voters under 30—a demographic Biden won by more than 20 points just four years ago. It wasn’t a fluke. Across the country, there were similar shifts among Latino, Asian, and even Black voters. The Democratic firewall cracked, and in some places, it crumbled.

The reasons? Economic issues loomed large. Voters trusted Trump more on pocketbook issues, and even abortion—a centerpiece of the Harris campaign—failed to galvanize support the way Democrats hoped. National exit polls showed voters were evenly split on who they trusted to handle the issue. For Democrats banking on social issues to carry the day, it was a rude awakening.

What about the high turnout itself? Turns out, it’s not a surefire win for Democrats anymore. Trump’s team put significant effort into registering and mobilizing “zeros”—voters who had skipped election after election. Those efforts proved critical. The GOP bet big on expanding their base, and it worked. That success could force Republicans to rethink their long-standing voter suppression strategies. After all, if you’re winning with more people voting, why make it harder for them?

Looking ahead, the big question remains: Is this about Trump, or is it a broader GOP shift? Trump’s appeal has reshaped American politics, but can his coalition survive without him at the top of the ticket? Democrats, for their part, need to figure out why they’re losing ground with key demographics and how to stop the bleeding.

One thing is certain: this election has scrambled the political rulebook. Both parties have a lot to figure out before 2028.