Donald Trump believes European countries have been getting rich off large trade surpluses with the US for decades.
He thinks its leaders have used the money to fund social policies like maternity care, while freeloading on America’s expected defence of Europe.
The president-elect plans to hit European imports with a tariff of up to 20 per cent, which has led the EU to draw up a list of US products for retaliatory tariffs and fears of a trade war.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will try to stop the tariffs by promising the EU will buy more US liquefied natural gas to replace Russian LNG.
A similar promise involving US soy beans convinced Mr Trump not to slap the EU with more tariffs during his first term.
Mr Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine. Reports suggest he is considering a plan that would involve a demilitarised zone policed by European soldiers.
Even if the political will for that existed, it is doubtful European armies could provide the security guarantees Ukraine needs without American help.
European nations will have to demonstrate their commitment to increasing defence spending, and make plans to replace US financial and military support to Ukraine.
Any Ukraine peace deal will set the terms of Europe’s security architecture for decades to come.
The challenge for European leaders is to ensure their voices are heard in the future negotiations between the big beasts of Russia and the US.
That won’t happen unless Europe’s prime ministers and presidents can be united over Ukraine, even if it means disagreeing with Mr Trump at times.
That appears an impossible ambition with some countries certain to run to Mr Trump’s banner in a bid to curry favour with the president.
Meanwhile, France and Germany are engulfed in domestic political chaos and their leaders weak, which will hand Mr Trump even more influence over the peace negotiations.
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